My portfolio is diversified across industry and size, weighted toward small cap stocks with above average changes of strong growth.
Here are the trailing 5 year graphs:
My portfolio is diversified across industry and size, weighted toward small cap stocks with above average changes of strong growth.
Here are the trailing 5 year graphs:
In the weeks ahead, later than planned, I'll be re-launching BullSense with a new product that has been a long time in development. For those few dozen of you who come here regularly, please send me an email by 10 Feb. so I can invite you to buy the product for $1 (over 98% discounted!). I would, of course, happily offer Investor to friends of BullSense free of charge, but in doing so would miss the opportunity to gather feedback on the purchasing experience.
emmet@bullsense.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~My favourite 5 stocks to buy now and hold for 5 years are as follows:
Zipcar (NYSE: ZIP), 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD), TripAdvisor (Nasdaq: TRIP), Stratasys (Nasdaq: SSYS), MAKO Surgical (Nasdaq: MAKO).
Emmet owns shares in ZIP, DDD and MAKO.
IBM predicts that over the next five years technology innovations will change the way we work, live and play. Here's their 5 for 5 (nice idea Big Blue; where did you hear it first?). While I don't disagree with any of the five predictions per se, I don't believe they offer the absolute greatest potential for investment.
In the month ahead I will beta re-launch BullSense with the purpose of building the world's best place for new investors. My blog will get a whole lot busier, there will be free videos and the usual 5 for 5. I'll also offer my first premium content for a small fee. Wish me luck!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~My favourite 5 stocks to buy now and hold for 5 years are as follows:
1. Zipcar (NYSE: ZIP): again. The future of car "ownership"
2. Disney (NYSE: DIS): will never go out of fashion.
3. 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD): on the verge of changing very many industries.
4. Under Armour (NYSE: UA): a cool brand supported by superior products with a passionate founding CEO.
5. CTRIP (Nasdaq: CTRP): with a long term view these are a fantastic investment at a good price today.
Emmet owns shares in all companies mentioned.
Glanbia is a wholesale food 'solutions' provider, ranging from dairy to whey products that are sold primarily in Ireland, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The company was founded in 1964, is headquartered in Kilkenny, Ireland, and is capatialised just below US$2B. The CEO and chairman have both held their positions for the past decade, while the board together are industry veterans.
The company's recent 2011 half year results make for good reading:
* Excellent results; adjusted EPS up 55%
* Strong organic growth in Global Nutritionals
* First time contribution by BSN (Performance Nutrition), acquired in January
* Positive global dairy market environment; up further on 2010
* Good performance by Dairy Ingredients Ireland
* Strong results across all key financial metrics
Total Group revenue, including Glanbia's share of the revenue of Joint Ventures & Associates, was E1.6 billion for the half year. One such JV, for example, is the 50:50 venture with The Greater South West Agency, producing American style cheese or whey protein for sale in the US & global nutritional markets. Glanbia truly are a globally diversified business having shifted 1.5 billion litres of milk and almost a quarter million tonnes of dairy ingredients to more than 50 countries last year.
The real growth opportunities however come from their large scale dairy business, where the intention is to address a billion new consumers in Asia/Latin America. From my perspective the ever increasing global need for food supplies, especially dairy products in countries unsuited for raring healthy livestock, is compelling. Now, consider this, lifted straight from Wiki (for convenience sake): EU market reform is creating new opportunities for growing milk supply and Ireland has a natural grassland advantage that can be exploited. The abolition of the quota system in April 2015 is the first opportunity to expand milk output since 1984. Expansion is underpinned by growing global demand for dairy products supported by demographics and emerging economies.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~My favourite 5 stocks to buy now and hold for 5 years are as follows:
1. Zipcar (NYSE: ZIP): as it was last month, a great recession-friendly business model.
2. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (Nasdaq: CBRL): again, my favourite young activist super-investor, Sardar Biglari has placed his cross-hair on Cracker Barrel. Considering his track history I'm confident he'll unlock shareholder value.
3. Country Style Cooking (Nasdaq: CCSC): a chain of quick-service eateries in China specialising in Sichuan-style cooking. Looks like value now for long term holders.
4. Retail Opportunity Investments (NYSE: ROIC): acquires distressed commercial real estate and turns the properties around, offering industry diversification and strong cash flows.
5. Glanbia (GLAPF.PK): see above.
Emmet owns shares in all companies mentioned with the exception of Glanbia and Cracker Barrel.
I can't believe I forgot to update this month's 5 for 5 until now, 8 November 2011. First time I missed the deadline. I've back dated the entry though to keep everything symmetrical!
The month gone by saw the passing of Steve Jobs. Endless obituaries have come from every quarter with very few arguing against the charge that Jobs has earned himself a place in history as one of the greatest innovators of all time, joining a pantheon of remarkably limited membership.
Jay Elliot author, with William L. Simon, of The Steve Jobs Way -- iLeadership for a New Generation, wrote the following:
I was blessed to be witness to the making of Steve the Innovator, at his side as he honed his innovative instincts in creating the Macintosh, and watching from the wings when he introduced the Mac in 1984... or rather -- in another stroke of innovation -- had the machine introduce itself, the first computer with a voice, speaking the words, "Hello, I am Macintosh." He came off stage beaming, like a Little Leaguer who had just hit his first home run. Only in Steve's case, it was a homer that would change the world.
Thirty years later, he was still hitting home runs.
Some people find it shocking that Steve Jobs has never had a high regard for market research. I suspect that Apple has spent less money on market research through the years than any other major consumer-products company. Steve has never been interested in what people think they want. Instead, as the world's greatest consumer, he has always been extraordinarily alert to what he himself wants. He has developed a near uncanny awareness of what would make life more pleasing for himself, and we've seen that in everything from the look, style, and user-friendly first Mac, to the iPod, iPhone, and iPad.
To conceive truly innovative products, you need to have the outlook of a commoner. You need to be, or become, a person whose desires parallel those of the masses. You need to become a world-class consumer, walking in the shoes of everyman.
Steve's talent for developing products that not only define "user friendly" but that exhibit almost breath-taking design I believe may have sprung from a course he took in his short stay at Reed College. It was a course in, of all things, calligraphy; I think that course instilled in him a passion for graphics that led to his demanding that the Macintosh leap beyond the single, ugly fonts of previous machines, to offer a wide variety of typefaces and sizes, plus bold, italics, and more. The thirst for great design became one of the passions that has made all of his products so uniquely appealing to the eye, and so uniquely easy to use.
In those early Apple days, Steve wore a Porsche watch with a titanium band. If you admired the watch, he would take it off and present it to you as a gift. He kept a whole box of them in the office, even though they cost $1,200 each.
Another keymark of Steve's innovative spirit: his "innovation receptors" are turned on all the time. When I worked for Steve I always made sure to meet him first thing each Monday morning and whenever he returned from a trip, because he often sailed through the door filled with enthusiasm about something he had just come across. When that happened, I knew I was about to witness another moment of innovative genius.
Steve has long had a favorite saying: "The journey is the reward."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~My favourite 5 stocks to buy now and hold for 5 years are as follows:
1. Zipcar (NYSE: ZIP): as it was last month, a great recession friendly business model.
2. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (Nasdaq: CBRL): my favourite young activist super-investor, Sardar Biglari has placed his cross-hair on Cracker Barrel. Considering his track history I'm confident he'll unlock shareholder value.
3. Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq: LULU): the Nike of Yoga. If you don't know them now, you will in the next few years.
4. Ebix (NYSE: EBIX): the Atlanta-based developer and supplier of software and e-commerce services to the insurance industry posted a slightly lower third-quarter profit. Notably, the third quarter of 2010 profit included a one time gain of $3.9 million.
5. Under Armour (Nasdaq: LULU): the Lululemon of sportswear!
Emmet owns shares in all companies mentioned with the exception of Apple and Cracker Barrel.
During September I had the pleasure of chatting with Abe Reichenthal, CEO of 3D Systems; a company in my portfolio and one I intend holding for many years. We spent about thirty minutes talking about his business and the industry in general. More so than ever I'm convinced that 3D printing is a mega-trend that will change the way the world works. From the simplest durable plastic print-outs to highly precise layered stereo lithographic components, 3D printing will go from strength to strength. In 5 to 10 years from now this technology will be fully absorbed into our lives and therefore now presents a great time to buy in. See last month's 5 for 5 for my three favourite ways to buy into the sector.
During the month I also spent time studying the world's indebtedness. While Japan holds the top spot as the world's most indebted nation, with its debt well over twice the country's GDP, it owes most of that money to itself. A bit like your left pocket owing your right one €20, so it doesn't really count. Next comes Greece, no surprises, with debt equaling 139% of the value of all goods and services produced in the country ( this is the definition of GDP). In other words the place is catastrophically bankrupt. Money in the till can't cover it's debt, hence the fear of contagion, where a contagious-like chain reaction of bad debt could spread throughout the banks of the world with most inconvenient side effects. Should this happen, the first domino has fallen and next into the limelight is Italy, whose debt is 120% of GDP. This is even more inconvenient as the total size of Italy's debt is US$2,564 billion (compared to Greece's US$434 billion)! Ouch. Then next in line of countries who got too giddy with the cheque-book is Iceland, with a laughably minute debt of US$16 billion (=108% of GDP), followed by Belgium and Ireland. In fact, the total debt of the nine most indebted countries in the world (excluding Japan for reasons explained), is just a shave below US$21 trillion. That kind of money would buy one heck of a holiday.
I guess my point is we should be looking to buy businesses with some or all of the following attributes: 1) more cash than debt, 2) recession resistant business models: stuff that will sell either way, 3) founding CEO's with the majority of their personal wealth tied up in the company they're running. There are more, but this is a good start.
My favourite 5 stocks to buy now and hold for 5 years are as follows:
1. Zipcar (NYSE: ZIP): like so many others, hammered down in recent weeks but with a great recession friendly business model.
2. Disney (NYSE: DIS): will they be around in 20 years? Will they bigger than they are today? Are they recession proof?
3. Costco (Nasdaq: COST): membership based supermarket chain allowing its customers save by bulk buying.
4. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B): last week Warren Buffett formally announcing a share buyback program for the first time in the company's 40+ year history. In other words, the most successful stock investor in history sees his own company's shares as the best place for capital allocation.
5. lululemon athletica (Nasdaq: LULU): the Nike of yoga.
Emmet owns shares in all companies mentioned.
Now that was an interesting month. I joked with friends in August of how I thought one day's low point was forgetting to bring home two dozen organic eggs from the supermarket, only to look at the stock market to realise I'd also lost the value of about 20,000 organic chickens.
As Walt Disney said, around here, however, we don't look backwards for very long.
This month 5 stocks were selected based on either value or an emerging mega trend. Read this piece from Forbes and watch the embedded video. When you first hear of the concept of 3D printing it seems too far fetched to be true. Three of this months picks are investing in the technology; if you don't believe that 3D printing will be huge, then don't buy; there's a lot of value elsewhere.
My favourite 5 stocks to buy now and hold for 5 years are as follows:
1. Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK): as per the video above, Autodesk are positioned to capatilise in the software end of 3D printing.
2. Stratasys (Nasdaq: SSYS): are principally targeting high end users with their machines while partnering with HP to distribute their low-end devices.
3. 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD): serving the consumer market with 3D printers for the home.
4. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B): even if Warren Buffett stood down from Bershire tomorrow I doubt their shares would fall much further.
5. Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO): very high risk. Sold off heavily in August. A barrier-to-entry-free business that's perfect in a recession.
Emmet owns shares in 3D Systems and Travelzoo.
My favourite 5 stocks to buy now and hold for 5 years are as follows:
1. Allot Communications (Nasdaq: ALLT): as it was last month, Allot have a massive market opportunity by being leaders in the field of DPI technology.
2. Ancestory.com (Nasdaq: ACOM): dropped over 11% on Friday despite announcing top and bottom line growth. The fall was a result of issuing conservative membership growth projections. I believe it's a great opportunity to buy at sale prices.
3. Country Style Cooking (Nasdaq: CCSC): the McDonalds of China? 5 years will tell.
4. PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP): for the conservative investor in you. Pepsi pay regular, generous, dividends and in my opinion will grow for decades to come.
5. Zipcar (Nasdaq: ZIP): will change the way city dwellers use cars. Hertz and friends offer a real threat however ZIP have a great first mover advantage.
Emmet owns shares in all of the companies listed above with the exception of PepsiCo.
1. Allot Communications (Nasdaq: ALLT): These guys have a massive market opportunity by being leaders in the field of DPI technology.
2. Bridgepoint Education (NYSE: BPI): undervalued for-profit education providers with great tailwinds.
3. Country Style Cooking (Nasdaq: CCSC): one of many companies that I'd never have found without the hard work of my friends at The Motley Fool. CCSC may just be the McDonalds of China.
4. Mako Surgical (Nasdaq: MAKO): minimally invasive orthopedic implants. These guys are leading the way in a sector that will only grow.
5. Travelzoo (NYSE: TZOO): bought shares in TZOO and CCSC today. Travelzoo sell discount vouchers. Arguably more effective than Groupon and far smaller.
Emmet owns shares in all of the companies listed above.
1. Boston Beer Co.(NYSE: SAM)
2. SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU)
3. Mako Surgical (Nasdaq: MAKO)
4. Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq: LULU)
5. 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD)
Emmet owns shares in Mako, Lulu and 3D Systems.
The likely evolution of how you've used mobile telephony is as follows: pre-1998, voice calls only. '98 to '00, voice and tiny amounts of data in the form of text messaging. '00 to '06 increased data usage in the form of higher text volumes and occasional internet surfing on your phone. Between '06 to '09 you may have used a mobile broadband modem for your laptop, or a Blackberry for mobile email, upping the amount of mobile data consumed. Finally, in recent times you may have joined the smartphone revolution. Throw an iPad or equivalent and you can see an emerging trend where voice (phone calls) is secondary to mobile internet.
As it happens, it's likely that in the foreseeable future voice calls will be free in mature markets, implying revenue streams for telephony providers will come from mobile data (meaning video, email, surfing, etc).
This was brought home to me recently when I saw a graph of network usage for the entire iPhone handset pool on a UK mobile network. On average, data usage immediately rose 20 fold when users moved to the iPhone from older ordinary devices. Smartphones no longer simply imply voice and text; at the heart of mobile telephony today lies Facebook + Twitter + YouTube + email + apps + IM and so on. Whatever mobile networks can build, handsets are ready to consume.
So what is absolutely critical to mobile networks going forward is managing the network capacity that has been built at massive cost. Like English mustard, the profit in data lies not in what people consume, but rather what's washed off the plate and down the sink. For example, if a provider charges $40 for 20G/month and a consumer uses all 20G, then they're quite likely unprofitable customers. If they use 3G/month they're great customers! They pay for more than they need.
To extend the example, a network could raise a customer's bundle from 20G/month to 30G, increase the monthly charge from $40 to $45, however throttle them to lower speeds when they hit, say, a 15G limit: one of several simple traffic management techniques. "Traffic shaping" will be one of the most important things for telephony providers to perfect in the years ahead, both in fixed and mobile.
Company: Allot Communications (Nasdaq: ALLT)
Country of incorporation: Israel
Market Cap: $325M
Cash / Debt: $61M / $0
Insider Ownership: 3.6%
www.allot.com
Only yesterday Allot reported that total revenues for the first quarter of 2011 reached $17.2 million, a 38% increase from the $12.5 million of revenues reported for the first quarter of 2010, and a 6% increase from the $16.2 million of revenues reported for the fourth quarter of 2010. Net profit for the first quarter of 2011 was $1.6 million, or $0.07 per basic share comparing with a net loss of $0.4 million, or $0.02 per share in the first quarter of 2010, and net income of $1.3 million, or $0.06 per basic share and $0.05 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2010.
I suspect that this is very much the thin end of the wedge. When I look at Allot's entire product range it's clear that they have covered off the most important things data networks will need to implement in the future. Allot's DPI (Deep Packet Inspection) technology enables mobile service providers to identify, classify, prioritise, and shape traffic, ultimately resulting in enhanced performance and profitability. New competitors will always emerge, but for now these guys are in a great position.
]]>1. Retail Opportunity Investments (Nasdaq: ROIC)
2. CTrip (Nasdaq: CTRP)
3. Mako Surgical (Nasdaq: MAKO)
4. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG)
5. Bridgepoint Education (NYSE: BPI)
Emmet bought shares in Mako Surgical during April. He owns shares in all the companies mentioned.
Cisco recently published an excellent paper on mobile data growth; everyone should read it as investment opportunities in the industry, from both geographical and technology perspectives, are supported by the data.
The Mobile Network in 2015
Global mobile data traffic will increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015. Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 92 percent from 2010 to 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015.
There will be nearly one mobile device per capita by 2015. There will be over 7.1 billion mobile-connected devices, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules, in 2015-approximately equal to the world's population in 2015 (7.2 billion).
Mobile network connection speeds will increase 10-fold by 2015. The average mobile network connection speed (215 kbps in 2010) will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 60 percent, and will exceed 2.2 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2015.
Two-thirds of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2015. Mobile video will more than double every year between 2010 and 2015. Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any application category measured within the Cisco VNI forecast at this time.
Mobile-connected tablets will generate as much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2015 (248 petabytes per month) will be approximately equal to the total amount of global mobile data traffic in 2010 (242 petabytes per month). The same will be true of M2M traffic, which will reach 295 petabytes per month in 2015.
The average smartphone will generate 1.3 GB of traffic per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010 average of 79 MB per month. Aggregate smartphone traffic in 2015 will be 47 times greater than it is today, with a CAGR of 116 percent.
By 2015, over 800 million terabytes of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to the fixed network by means of dual-mode devices and femtocells. Without dual-mode and femtocell offload of smartphone and tablet traffic, total mobile data traffic would reach 7.1 exabytes per month in 2015, growing at a CAGR of 95 percent.
The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 129 percent CAGR, followed by Latin America at 111 percent and Central and Eastern Europe at 102 percent.
There will be 788 million mobile-only Internet users by 2015. The mobile-only Internet population will grow 56-fold from 14 million at the end of 2010 to 788 million by the end of 2015.
The mobile network will break the electricity barrier in more than 4 major regions by 2015. By 2015, 4 major regions (Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East) and 40 countries (including India, Indonesia, and Nigeria) will have more people with mobile network access than with access to electricity at home. The off-grid, on-net population will reach 138 million by 2015.
Next week I'll publish my favourite sock to own to capitalise on this tremendous growth
1. NXP Semiconductors (Nasdaq: NXPI)
2. CTrip (Nasdaq: CTRP)
3. DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA)
4. Yongye International (NYSE: YONG)
5. Qlik (Nasdaq: QLIK)
Emmet owns shares in CTrip, DreamWorks, Yongye and Qlik.
1. Retail Opportunities Investments (Nasdaq: ROIC)
2. CTrip (Nasdaq: CTRP)
3. K12 (NYSE: LRN)
4. Dolby (NYSE: DLB)
5. Qlik (Nasdaq: QLIK)
During February Emmet bought shares in Retail Opportunities, K12, CTrip and added to Dolby. He owns shares in Qlik.